Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints and Washington Redskins, leaders of the NFC South and NFC East, respectively, meet in a marquee Monday Night Football matchup that kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is just 201 yards away from becoming the all-time leader in career passing yards, so interest in Redskins vs. Saints is sky-high. In the latest Saints vs. Redskins odds as game time approaches, New Orleans is favored by six, down a half-point from the opener. The over-under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 51.5 after climbing as high as 53. Before you lay your own Saints vs. Redskins picks, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying.

In a straight-up, pick’em format, the proprietary computer model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.

It went a blistering 11-4 on its Week 4 picks straight-up, and nailed three of its four top-rated selections, including Kansas City (-3.5) over Denver on Monday night. It’s now 10-3 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to a remarkable 58-37.

Now, it has simulated Redskins vs. Saints to produce strong against the spread, over-under, and money line picks. We can tell you the model is leaning toward the Over, and it also has a pick against the spread that’s hitting in more than half of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine.

The model knows the Saints’ high-octane offense hasn’t disappointed, with Brees, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara performing at a high level. Brees, who could make NFL history on Monday Night Football, is averaging 311 yards per game and has completed 75 percent of his passes with eight TDs and no INTs. Thomas has 42 catches for 445 yards and three TDs.

Kamara is the new Le’Veon Bell of the NFL, capable of damaging defenses on the ground and as a receiver. He has 611 yards from scrimmage and leads all running backs with 35 receptions. On Monday, New Orleans will get Mark Ingram back from a four-game suspension, further bolstering the run game.

The Saints’ defense ranks fourth in the NFL against the run, allowing only 79.5 yards per game, and has nine sacks, led by DE Cameron Jordan’s four. The O-line has allowed Brees to be taken down just six times.

Just because the Saints have outscored the competition doesn’t mean they’ll cover the spread on Monday Night Football.

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