A popular preseason Super Bowl pick takes place in Week 9 of the regular season when the New England Patriots host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is 8:20 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium and features two of the game’s marquee quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. The latest Patriots vs. Packers odds have New England as a five-point home favorite, while the Over-Under, or total points Vegas expects to be scored, is 56.5, the second-highest of the week. Green Bay is 3-3-1, but is just a few plays away from being 6-1, while red-hot New England has won five straight after a 1-2 start. Before you lay any of your own Patriots vs. Packers picks, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
In a straight-up, pick’em format, their proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on all A-rated picks last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model was a blistering 13-1 straight up last week. Additionally, it was a strong 6-0 on all top-rated picks in Week 8, including nailing the Redskins (-1) over the Giants and the Seahawks (+3) over the Lions. That perfect mark in Week 8 improved its overall run to 68-43 on all top-rated picks. Anybody who has been following those picks is way, way up.
Now, the model has simulated the Packers vs. Patriots 10,000 times. We can tell you the model is leaning towards the over, but it has also produced a strong against-the-spread pick that hits 60 percent of the time. This pick is available only at SportsLine.
The computer knows that the Patriots have won five straight since a 1-2 start with wins over the Dolphins, Colts, Chiefs, Bears, and Bills. Brady and the offense amassed at least 38 points in the first four wins of that streak, while the defense did the heavy lifting in Monday night’s 25-6 win at Buffalo.
Brady has passed for 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions, buoyed by running back James White, who has 55 receptions and six TDs, near the top of the NFL in both categories.
The Patriots’ defense has also come alive. New England is in the top half of the NFL in points allowed (23.1) and rushing yards allowed (105.5). The Patriots also have 11 interceptions, tied for second in the league.
The Pats are 4-0 at home, but that doesn’t mean they can cover the spread with Rodgers and the Pack coming to town.
The Packers are a Ty Montgomery fumble, Mason Crosby kicking meltdown and questionable Clay Matthews roughing penalty away from being 6-1 instead of 3-3-1. Green Bay is only .500 despite having the NFL’s fifth-ranked offense and 12th-ranked defense.
Rodgers has been his usual All-Pro self, throwing for 13 touchdowns and one interception. He’ll face a Patriots defense that ranks 26th against the pass, allowing 289 yards per game through the air. Green Bay’s defense, meanwhile, ranks seventh against the pass and has 23 sacks, many of them from up the middle, as nose tackle Kenny Clark and inside linebacker Blake Martinez have four each.